Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Global Decline

2008-2011 STI Chart


2011 STI Chart

I don't really have a crystal ball to predict the future. The only thing I did was an awfully a lot of research. I've been studying about business and finance for a decade and currently this is what I got to show. I am not a bachelor or degree student and I do not have a formal education to show that I am a genius.

I'm sure everybody knows sentiments are strong that global recession is near or should I say at our door step. History does repeat itself again. Remember 2008/2009?  In March, there was European Sovereign Debt Crisis. What happened to them? It means borrowing money you can't pay back. So simple. Greece was the start. Greece being in the European Union, gave me a reason to believe that some how the other nations within EU could be following the steps of Greece and indeed, Italy, Portugal and Ireland.

PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Greece

Rather known as PIGS as they are often in regard to matters relating to sovereign debt markets. The term was used by some bank analysts.


Then came the US Debt Problem. The US debt had reached to 14.3 trillion and they were facing a time crisis with their political wrangling to decide whether or not to raise the debt ceiling. It's either US default without raising the debt ceiling or approve a deal to avoid default. The result of these 2 choices? A predictable global recession to come from my opinion from either one of the choices

Even though US manage to clinch a deal, just look at what is happening now. News keep repeating that it's possible that US will lose the AAA credit rating and yes it did. First it was fear on the possibility and now it resulted in investors causing major sell-offs in global markets. That seals the deal right?

So, little chicken starts running scared believing the the world is kicking into another recession.

S&P500
Just take a look at the S&P data above, diving further. This is called panic selling, where the pigs get slaughtered.

Are we expecting a global recession? Or is this just a temporary panic? I let the financial analyst decide.




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